A TORNADO WATCH

has been issued for the entire area until 1am….. This means that severe storms COULD POSSIBLY produce tornadoes at a moment’s notice. Should a TORNADO WARNING be issued for your area, you should BE READY to seek shelter (basement, under a work bench, interior room away from windows).

BELOW THE ACTUAL TEXT OF THE WATCH FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER!!!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 280

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

650 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

WESTERN VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM

UNTIL 100 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF STAUNTON

VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES WEST OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER

SYSTEM SPREADS INTO GREATER INSTABILITY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

WITH INCREASING SSWLY LLJ THIS EVENING...SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL

BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED

TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE

HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...EVANS

Get ready. Many of you will have some bad weather moving in later this evening into tonight.

Here’s the deal…

Clouds from this morning have thinned out… and temperatures have warmed well into the 70s outside.

On top of that - have you noticed how MOIST it is outside? Storms THRIVE on warm, MUGGY air, and we definitely have that in place now.

A storm system to our west is fast approaching right now and will get here between 5:30pm and 9pm, lasting into the night.

Here it is

Water Vapor - look at the “swirl” approaching…

Now the radar…

The air outside is getting VERY UNSTABLE…meaning that once this system moves into our air, it will allow for the air to RISE VERY FAST, creating strong storms in many areas.

While the maps below may be hard to understand, they give you an idea in the darker shadings where the most powerful storms may fire.

Basically, the air near the ground is very warm, while the air in the clouds is much colder. The end result is lots of buoyancy and powerful storms - or at least the potential!

The STORM PREDICTION CENTER is concerned, highlighting our area for the potential for SEVERE STORMS with DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, FLASH FLOODING, and maybe even an isolated TORNADO.

No reason to panic, but do keep in mind that the potential for some rough weather is there into tonight. This is a quickly-developing situation. Keep it here for the latest!

Low pressure will again move into our area tomorrow.

This time, the low will ride up from the south, giving us a soaking, general, rain.

The track of the low will be to our east this time, ruling out severe weather, and leaving us with just a good steady rainfall.

Latest computer model indications point to a solid half inch to 1.5” of moisture Friday! Something we definitely could use!

Check it out…this is the 5 day total precip forecast from the NWS…

Colder weather with snow flurries is possible Saturday! Followed by sun for Sunday.

Wow, what an active day we had Tuesday! The system that hit our area could be seen on computer models days in advance

Note that the system “tilts” backward as it gets near Virginia. This is what we meteorologists call “negative tilt”. It essentially means that when the system “leans back” at 18,000 feet or so, the air upstairs separates and diverges, leaving a huge void to fill ahead of system. So, the air from below has to RISE UP FAST to fill the void!

The fast and stronger the rising air is, the stronger and heavier the thunderstorms are that generate! Remember, negative tilt usually means rough weather is in store! (I made mention of the “tilt” of the system on Monday!)

Many people have reported loosing power and having some tree damage from Tuesday.

Below are some official National Weather Service Reports….

1149 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0803 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW OAK LEVEL 36.87N 79.98W 03/04/2008 FRANKLIN VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES IN THE HENRY AREA.

0822 PM TSTM WND DMG SNOW CREEK 36.83N 79.75W 03/04/2008 FRANKLIN VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES ON ROUTE 890.

0924 PM TSTM WND DMG DANVILLE CITY 36.58N 79.42W

03/04/2008 CITY OF DANVILLE VA EMERGENCY MNGR ONE TREE DOWN ON THE SOUTH END OF TOWN. POWER LINES DOWN IN THE CITY.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG DANVILLE CITY 36.58N 79.42W

03/04/2008 CITY OF DANVILLE VA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWNED ALONG HIGHWAY 58 ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CITY.

0900 PM TSTM WND DMG COVINGTON CITY 37.78N 79.98W

03/04/2008 CITY OF COVINGTON VA PUBLIC

GROCERY STORE SIGN BLOWN OVER AND DAMAGE.

0919 PM TSTM WND GST HOT SPRINGS 38.00N 79.83W

03/04/2008 M61.00 MPH BATH VA MESONET BATH COUNTY HIGH SCHOOL

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 S ROCKY MOUNT 36.86N 79.88W

03/04/2008 FRANKLIN VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN NEAR ROUTE 220 SOUTH

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 15 WNW DANVILLE AIRPORT 36.67N 79.58W 03/04/2008 PITTSYLVANIA VA PUBLIC

DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOME, PORCH BLOWN OFF AND NEARBY ALUMINUM SHED REMOVED. COVERED DOG RUN DAMAGED.

0539 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N ALTAVISTA 37.15N 79.30W

03/04/2008 CAMPBELL VA AMATEUR RADIO

2 LARGE PINE TREES DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 622 IN LYNCH STATION

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 NE PULASKI 37.10N 80.74W

03/04/2008 PULASKI VA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES DOWN, TOWN OF NEWBERN

0815 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S STUART 36.60N 80.28W

03/04/2008 PATRICK VA AIRPLANE PILOT

ROUTE 8 SOUTH, METAL BUILDING BLOWN DOWN

0815 PM TSTM WND DMG MEADOWS OF DAN 36.73N 80.42W

03/04/2008 FLOYD VA PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

The weather will be very nice Wednesday and Thursday - I’d say we deserve a break, wouldn’t you?

I expect sunshine into Thursday, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

Looks like rain showers, nothing severe, just rain - on Friday. Then SHARPLY COLDER SATURDAY!!! Snow flurries and highs only in the 30s greet us as we start out the upcoming weekend!

Because of these storms….

WINDS OF 50 MPH, HAIL, and FLOODING is likely. Looks very active - much of the area is still until a TORNADO WATCH though midnight Roanoke and South…and until 3am Roanoke and north…

FLOODING IS BECOMING A HUGE ISSUE WITH WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR FLOODING OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS!!!!

ACTUAL TEXT IS BELOW!!!!!

TORNADO WARNING

VAC019-031-067-089-143-050145-

/O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0003.080305T0122Z-080305T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

822 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

SOUTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA

NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

SOUTH CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 845 PM EST.

* AT 819 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SNOW

CREEK...OR NEAR SYDNORSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SNOW CREEK...

SAGO...

PENHOOK...

SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE STATE PARK...

HUDDLESTON...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS

THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY

ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU

ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE

LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO

NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3725 7954 3712 7936 3696 7952 3676 7971

3681 7985

TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 216DEG 50KT 3684 7975

$$

WP

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

751 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

CITY OF RADFORD IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

CITY OF SALEM IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

CITY OF ROANOKE IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

GILES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

CRAIG COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

WESTERN BOTETOURT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

CITY OF COVINGTON IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

BATH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA

GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA

EASTERN SUMMERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA

ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 845 PM EST.

* AT 747 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM RUPERT TO TALCOTT TO THESSALIA TO PULASKI TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF

PULASKI...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RUPERT TO HINTON TO

NARROWS TO PULASKI TO ALLISONIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

THESSALIA...

DUO...

CLAYTOR LAKE STATE PARK...

CASCADES...

PRICES FORK...

BLACKSBURG...

ROANOKE...

NEW CASTLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 150

AND 183.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO

IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY

STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SEEK

SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS

WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3805 8026 3807 7997 3821 7989 3818 7952

3813 7958 3814 7977 3761 7976 3725 7987

3719 7977 3712 7978 3723 7992 3719 7994

3712 7987 3717 8009 3703 8018 3699 8038

3701 8084 3772 8078 3805 8066 3824 8045

TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 248DEG 46KT 3802 8066 3771 8078

3732 8081 3700 8073 3688 8072

$$

WP

Flash flooding, in addition to very high and gusty winds (enough to do damage!) with large hail - can all be expected from this area of storms as it approaches the rest of the NRV, Roanoke, and Lynchburg areas tonight.

Here’s that second area I’m talking about…

Look at how much rain has fallen ALREADY - add another round of storms and you get the idea that some flooding is likely where it rains the hardest tonight!

So, be ready for more rough weather. Tornadoes should NOT be a big concern with this second line, but I think the rain and wind will likely grab your attention when it approaches your house!

I’ll keep you updated!

Jamey

The tornado warnings were allowed to expire in Henry and Franklin Counties minutes ago, but that doesn’t mean we are totally out of the woods.

We now have a new TORNADO WATCH in effect for most of the Roanoke Valley and Piedmont areas of Virginia AND a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH up for the NRV and mountains!

Storms ongoing still have the potential to drop a tornado or create very damaging winds in southside and central Virginia this evening.

PLUS, another line of storms may push through later tonight, with more severe weather possible.

Below is the actual statement from the NWS…

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

430 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

TORNADO WATCH 98 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD

CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE FLOYD

FRANKLIN HALIFAX HENRY

LUNENBURG MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY

PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA PRINCE EDWARD

ROANOKE

VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD DANVILLE GALAX

LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE RADFORD

ROANOKE SALEM

$$

ATTN...WFO...CAE...RNK...AKQ...MRX...GSP...RAH...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

VAZ014-018>020-022>024-033>035-045>047-059-051945-

MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-

FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-

235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH

CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH

THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SOME STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT

LINE WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

$$

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

406 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

VAC067-089-690-042130-

/O.CON.KRNK.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080304T2130Z/

CITY OF MARTINSVILLE VA-FRANKLIN VA-HENRY VA-

406 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST FOR THE CITY

OF MARTINSVILLE... HENRY AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 401 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MARTINSVILLE

CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

FIGSBORO...LEATHERWOOD...OAK LEVEL...MOUNTAIN VALLEY...

SYDNORSVILLE...SNOW CREEK...SONTAG AND SAGO.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT

TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST

TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3689 7963 3667 7975 3654 7987 3654 7991

3657 8005 3660 8004 3707 7980

TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 212DEG 45KT 3670 7985

$$

WP

Check it out -

One band of very, very heavy rain - on the order of 1-2 inches per hour is falling over many communities this afternoon.

Stronger storms, some even severe may get going at a moment’s notice, especially in Lynchburg and southside around Martinsville and Danville, as temperatures have reached 70 degrees today!!!

Damaging winds of 50 to 70 mph, along with blinding rains that could even cause flash flooding, mudslides, dangerous lightning, and large hail are all possible in any storm that develops.

Another line of INTENSE storms to our west will arrive later this evening, around 7 or 8 pm - directly ahead of the heart of the system.

You can see the storms to our west this afternoon.

As the system continues to move east, the orientation of it will actually tilt upstairs!!!

This means a HUGE amount of rising air, meaning long-lived, strong to severe thunderstorms and even tornadoes!

Another round of heavy rain, thunder and lightning combined with gusty, squally winds are possible for some of you, especially south and east of Roanoke into this evening.

For the rest of us, the wind will get STRONG tonight into Wednesday.

Wind advisories are up for gusts that will likely top 40 to 55 mph!!!

Snow will fill in on the back side of this system as colder winds whip in from the northwest. Most of us have a good chance of flurries, even heavier snow showers later tonight and throughout the day Wednesday!!! The blowing of snow with the wind will make for some quick, yet impressive displays of winter for some of you tomorrow!

The snowfall will really get going in the highest elevations and west-facing slopes along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

Mainly, this will be ABOVE 3000 feet - there will be areas that do get almost a FOOT of snow on the mountain tops Wednesday!

For the rest of us - rain, some storms the next few hours - then WINDS of 40-55 mph with snow showers into Wednesday!

Get ready!

High pressure will clear us out nicely today, with highs in the 50’s.

I’m watching our next weather maker, which will arrive in the form of clouds later tonight and what looks to be a solid rain for us on Tuesday.

Over the next 5 days, here’s what the National Weather Service is calling for in terms of moisture….

Behind the rain Tuesday, will come the COLD and the WIND again Wednesday!!!

Have the winter coats, gloves and mittens handy Wednesday, as the winds will gust over 40 mph, possibly causing damage (though not as extreme as earlier this month). Along with the wind, will come snow showers for the Roanoke Valley. Some of the snow showers could even coat the ground, especially in the mountains! The ski resort areas near West Virginia and the Greenbrier Valley could see a FOOT of snow Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

The jet stream will drop down another blast of arctic air over us from the northwest, helping to “ring out” snow showers along the western slopes of the mountains.

The rest of us will just see flurries and snow showers, but it will NO DOUBT feel like winter!

Calmer and warmer weather start off the weekend, as we quickly rebound into the *60s* for highs by Sunday and Monday!

Moisture with the little system is limited, and anything that comes at us from the west usually gets eaten up some by the mountains.

Still, computer models show SOME of the rain and snow actually making it east. The moisture is likely to be spotty, but where it does fall, SOME OF US may see snow tonight. The snow would likely be wet, possibly coating grassy areas, especially in the mountains. Other areas may just see a sprinkle or flurry.

Keep it here for the latest!

The last part of the system - really the ONLY part that TRULY will affect the area in terms of moisture is coming at us from the southwest for the lunchtime hour.

At this point, temperatures on the roads are warm enough that there shouldn’t be many problems from this. Even though air temps are right at freezing - I would only expect a quick glaze on the power lines, tree limbs, car surfaces and windshields, and road signs.

Just be careful on the bridges - as they are colder. There were several reports of accidents early this morning from icy roads.

For the most part, though, this last batch will do it!

Temperatures will slowly warm into the afternoon as the rain pulls out, leaving us with a foggy night with drizzle.

Here’s my weathercast on Cable 12 this morning

Temperatures are in the upper 20s and lower 30s, and it looks as if we’ll see the light and patchy freezing rain continue for a couple of hours.

REMEMBER: With ICE, it’s not the AMOUNT that matters! Just a thin glaze can make roads, especially bridges, sidewalks, and decks very slick!!!!

I’m expecting a “grand finale” to this later this morning…sometime around 8am to Noon.

That’s when the main bulk of the rain will move in from Tennessee.

If temperatures are still below freezing, we’ll see a quick additional 1/10” of ice before the temps warm after lunchtime.

All in all, not a lot of moisture to work with at all. BUT when temps are below 32 - ANY moisture can still make things slick!

The next 6 hours will be critical - then we can let our guard down.

Radar trends continue to show two distinct and large areas of precipitation…but one’s to our north in the form of snow across Ohio, West Virginia, and extreme Northern Virginia - moving east.

The other is a large area of rain to our south into the Carolinas - moving east.

The rain to the south essentially has “robbed” our area of seeing any significant weather tonight.

While there are some isolated batches of snow and sleet trying to form, mainly in southside and Lynchburg and Central Virginia, down along the foothills of Franklin County - most of that is not reaching the ground yet because the air is so very dry.

So, we’re in a “hole” or a “void” of moisture right now - no doubt about it.

The computer models even pick up on this continuing into the night.

One thing’s for sure, though: IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY WEATHER AT THE SURFACE and will remain that way into much of Friday morning, maybe even into lunchtime.

By then, a SECOND SURGE of moisture - THIS ONE MOVING MORE TO THE NORTHEAST (not due east and missing us like tonight) will likely be what gives us most of our ICE for Friday Morning.

It’s forming out of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana, and appears to have a trajectory that would put it more over - or at least CLOSER to us FRIDAY MORNING!

Snow and sleet should now start in spots around sunrise Friday, and quickly change to freezing rain for several hours Friday Morning. As far as amounts are concerned, it still looks like a good .20” to .30” of ice on top of a coating of snow and sleet.

We should change over to all rain by Friday afternoon.

BOTTOM LINE: NOT MUCH TO REPORT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT! That part of the system missed us!

BUT FRIDAY MORNING we will see the second part of the system actually bring in moisture….mainly freezing rain. IT WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE!!!

Basically, the event has been delayed about 6 to 12 hours now.

The commute Friday Morning will be interesting to say the least, should this second area get here in time.

Just glancing at the latest radar this afternoon, you can clearly see a “hole”, or separation in the moisture field as it advances close to our area.

Storms along the gulf coast are essentially blocking the moisture from the south from getting in here. Meanwhile, another system to the north is focusing the rest of the moisture away from us.

Check it out here:

See?

The latest computer models also show this trend possibly continuing into Friday. Good news for folks who don’t want a LOT of snow and ice.

Look at how there are TWO areas of the highest moisture on BOTH models. One to the north, one to the south…the Roanoke Valley is left with very light amounts at best…

So the amount of moisture seems like it may end up being low with this event.

STILL, IT’S COLD!!!

ANYTHING that falls, as light as it can be, will FREEZE ON CONTACT.

I still feel that even if we only see a little bit of snow and ice, it will be enough for travel problems early Friday!

Stay tuned! Things could always start to “fill in” as well…

Three new computer model runs and the latest radar pictures show our next round of winter weather taking shape later tonight into Friday.

Cold temperatures today will keep the roads very chilly, as highs only reach the mid 30’s to around 40 for highs today.

STARTING tonight, moisture from the south will start to push into the very cold air over us now.

Initially, tonight’s moisture will fall as SNOW, which could last a few hours - especially north of Roanoke. Snow would start after sunset around 8 or 9 pm, and mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain around 4am. We could even see accumulations around 1 inch with several inches possible in a few areas to the north before the change over.

IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE CAN FILL IN, because the air is VERY DRY right now.

After 4am Friday, we’ll just see freezing rain. The latest computer models show at least 1/5” of ice, with over ¼” in some places. This could be enough to glaze power lines and tree limbs, weighing them down and causing them to break.

Of course, this all depends on how much moisture falls from the sky during that timeframe. One model is still suggesting around a quarter of an inch (enough to do some damage), while another suggests only a tenth of an inch.

Either way, TRAVEL WILL BE NASTY FRIDAY MORNING! Roads will already be iced over because the moisture is probably going to fall BEFORE SUNRISE.

There will be another change to just rain by Friday Afternoon, as the system pulls away later Friday.

Today’s rain and snow showers have fallen apart for most of us.

Our attention now turns to Thursday Night and Friday morning.

Freezing rain still looks to be the biggest threat by early Friday, as most computer models have been somewhat consistent for days in showing cold air becoming “trapped” along our mountains, while moisture and warmer air ride UP AND OVER the cold air at the surface!

This will lead to freezing rain forming sometime late Thursday, more than likely just prior to sunrise on Friday. At some point by around noon Friday, the temps should rise above 32, and make way for just rain.

Two things are CRITICAL with this system…

1) The AMOUNT OF MOISTURE: The computer models have had trouble nailing this one down, with some forecasts only calling for a minute amount of ice, while others show a quarter of an inch, even a little more. The latter would likely bring down some tree limbs and could cause power outages for some. We’ll have to wait and see how the moisture fills in.

A lot can still change as far as these two details, but it definitely looks like we have some form of ice to worry about Friday Morning!!! Keep it here for the latest!!!

The moisture is moving fast, but the sun has set and temperatures are dropping.

Rain showers that fell most of the afternoon are turning over to areas of wet snow this evening.

Radar animations are showing some rather steady snow at times in the New River Valley and Mountain Empire of SW Virginia.

Again, this is a fast mover and will get out of here in a hurry later tonight.

Still, a quick coating of white may greet you later tonight or early Thursday morning as a result!

Below is the ACTUAL TEXT from the National Weather Service

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

524 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008

VAZ009>014-210000-

SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...

WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...BLACKSBURG

524 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008

.NOW...

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME

HEATING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. THIS WILL

ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH THE SNOW CONTINUING FOR AN

HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ENDING. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE

WITH UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AROUND AN INCH OF

SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT MOUNTAIN LAKE...AND ON TOP BRUSH AND BIG

WALKER MOUNTAINS.

$$

First things first.

Winds outside are already gusting between 25 and 35 mph and should only get stronger as the day goes on. While I don’t expect the winds to reach the levels they did last week…today’s wind WILL NO DOUBT create problems today for your Tuesday!

Trees and limbs that were “partially” damaged from last week will likely fall as the higher winds blow into the afternoon and evening. Already I’ve had a few reports of limbs down, along with a large tree down in Roanoke.

Power outages have also been reported, totaling several hundred in Botetourt County, and over 1,000 in Bedford County. I fear these numbers will again rise throughout the day.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR WINDS OVER 40 MPH, GUSTING TO 55 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON!!!

The other MAJOR THREAT is for FIRE.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE ROANOKE VALLEY TODAY.

The combination of the wind, VERY LOW HUMIDITIES, and excess brush from last week’s wind storm could create what the National Weather Service is calling “EXPLOSIVE FIRE DEVELOPMENT” later today.

Don’t be surprised to see a few brush fires, some of which could get out of hand quickly this afternoon and evening.

IF THAT WEREN’T ENOUGH…there’s the threat of ICE for THURSDAY NIGHT into EARLY FRIDAY.

Now, 5 days later, you’re finally starting to hear the other media outlets talk about the threat. While they were likely “playing it safe” incase the forecast changes, the way I forecast is a bit different. If I see a threat - especially one like ice and power outages and the forecast day after day holds consistent, I will tell you about it!

The time period to watch will be Thursday Night into Friday. It’s going to get COLD Wednesday, with scattered snow showers and flurries for many. The wind will STILL BE AN ISSUE!

On the heels of Wednesday’s cold will come moisture from the southern jet stream Thursday Evening.

It looks to me like another ICING EVENT late Thursday Night into the morning on FRIDAY.

Right now, amounts of ¼” appear likely, which would bring many tree limbs down and create yet more power outages. We’ll also have to watch the roads!!!!

Folks, this will be another VERY ACTIVE week for weather. From WIND, WIND DAMGAGE, FIRES, ICE, and ICE DAMAGE…you’ll want to be prepared!

Have your extra water, flashlights, blankets and generators ready to go just incase starting today and lasting through Friday.

And just to give you a “second opinion”, below are the ACTUAL STATEMENTS from the National Weather Service I pulled off of the weather wire this morning….

Keep it here for the latest! >>>STATEMENTS FOLLOW BELOW!!! (NOTE THE SERIOUSNESS IN THE SECOND STATEMENT - RED FLAG WARNING)

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

313 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.

INCREASING WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH

MIXING TO RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER

RIDGES TODAY.

ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-SMYTH-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-

GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-

ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...

MARION...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...

BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...

CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...

BEDFORD...AMHERST

313 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WIND

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO

50 OR 55 MPH BY MIDDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THE

STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE

POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN

MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

RED FLAG WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

510 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS

AFTERNOON...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. VERY DRY

AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO

PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-PATRICK-

FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-

510 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO

6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO

6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 OR 40 MPH CAN

BE EXPECTED TODAY. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG

PARTS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE STRONG WEST WINDS OFF OF THE

MOUNTAINS WILL HELP DRIVE THE HUMIDITY DOWN TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30

PERCENT.

IN SPITE OF RECENT RAINFALL...THE WIND AND LOWERING HUMIDITY WILL

ACCELERATE THE DRYING OF GRASS...LEAVES...AND BRUSH...MAKING THEM

AVAILABLE TO BURN IF A FIRE STARTS. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY

UNDER THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FIRE MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD TAKE ACTION AS NEEDED. FIRE

PERIMETERS ON THE EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA SHOULD BE MONITORED

CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL ESCAPE.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS

ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A COMBINATION OF

STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL

TYPICALLY CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

THESE WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE later Sunday Evening and Sunday Night….Reaching 60 to 70 mph in many places.

Driving will be difficult. Watch out for blowing debris and keep a good grip on the wheel!

While moisture is limited, the northern branch of the jet stream will be sending a disturbance just to our north, wrapping around a closed low across the northeast Sunday.

The circulation around this feature way up in the clouds has very strong wind driving it.

Also, colder air is moving in for Sunday.

Colder air is heavy, and tends to plummet to the ground.

Combine that with the natural sinking of the air behind the disturbance I first mentioned above, and you’re talking about a quick and potent forcing of air down the sides of our mountains Sunday. Essentially, the mountains act as “fingers” - touching the higher wind above and moving the gusts into the Roanoke Valley area.

Winds of TROPICAL STORM, maybe even HURRICANE FORCE (50-75 mph) are not out of the question Sunday.

This kind of wind will no doubt cause damage. Tree limbs, actual trees, power lines, loose outdoor furniture and garbage cans may be victims of the extreme wind Sunday.

Power outages are likely for some!

Below is the actual text from the National Weather Service….

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

927 PM EST SAT FEB 9 2008

...HIGH WINDS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY

EVENING...

.A FAST MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE

TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE

STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OCCURRING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND

GUSTS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS TO PRODUCE DOWNED

TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-

MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-

BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...

MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...

BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...

CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON

927 PM EST SAT FEB 9 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY.

SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO

60 MPH ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST

WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH

POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. EXTREME CAUTION IS

ADVISED IF TRAVELING THROUGH THIS AREA WITH A HIGH PROFILE

VEHICLE.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED

OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS

OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Clouds will be on the increase very late Wednesday Night, and by Thursday Morning, a strong area of “spin” in the upper atmosphere will be crossing the mountains from the west.

This “spin” or “energy” as we forecasters like to call it, will lift the air out ahead of it - meaning that an area of light snow can’t be ruled out Thursday morning. I’m not expecting this to be a big deal - it’s more like a “clipper” system. Still, some areas will see it snow for a brief period early Thursday, and if the ground is cold enough, there could be a dusting in some areas.

Behind the disturbance Thursday Morning, our winds will increase up to 20 to 30 mph Thursday afternoon as HIGH TEMPERATURES struggle to get out of the 30’s. The wind chills will be even colder.

Areas, including Roanoke and especially the Alleghany Highlands, New River Valley, and SW Mountains will see rounds of snow flurries, and even some intense, but short-lasting snow squalls throughout the afternoon and evening Thursday.

I wouldn’t expect much accumulations, just enough flurry/snow shower activity for you to take notice of.

The EXCEPTION will be in the mountains, where a quick 1 to 2 inches could occur in SCATTERED areas Thursday. Blowing and sometimes blinding snow may accompany some of the heavier snow showers. Remember, though, these are only snow showers, nothing huge.

With the Arctic Air firmly in place Thursday Night, lows will easily be down into the lower and middle teens for most, with a few SINGLE DIGITS in the coldest locations in the mountains!

The good news is that we look to warm up - IMAGINE THAT - into the weekend!!! A few clouds on Saturday and MAYBE an early morning rain or snow shower, but overall not too bad. By Sunday, I expect partly cloud skies and highs well into the 40’s even near 50 - with 50’s likely Monday into Tuesday, along with rain showers.

Finally a thaw on the way - but remember - we still have to get through THURSDAY first!!!

By the way - we did dodge the bullet on the ice the past Tuesday! Numerous wrecks were reported in Winston Salem, NC, Knoxville, TN, and even the Hampton Roads area of Virginia. I never mean to “cry wolf” in a forecast, but I do feel it is my responsibility to keep you informed of all of the POSSIBILITIES that could affect your property of personal safety. If that rain had moved into our area, instead of the surrounding cities, we would have been slipping and sliding like everyone else Tuesday! But luckily, we got off easy!

By all means, our next system slated for Tuesday doesn’t look to put down very much in the way of moisture - mainly just very light precipitation is expected.

Here’s the thing: IT’S COLD! Very cold. And it has been for several days, especially Sunday Night and Monday. Temperatures reached the single digits and teens Monday morning, and will again be starting out frigid early Tuesday - in the upper 10s and lower 20s.

IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH AT ALL TO MAKE THE STREETS DANGEROUS TO DRIVE ON!!!!

And moisture is on the way!!!

I expect some snow and sleet as early as Tuesday Morning, but my BIGGEST concern is for FREEZING RAIN.

While amounts will not be significant at all - just above a trace in some areas…IT ONLY TAKES A THIN GLAZE OF ICE TO MAKE ROADS A WRECK - Literally!!!

If the mix moves in around sunrise Tuesday, we’re in big trouble. That’s before the sun’s radiation can get through the clouds and at least warm the pavement some.

Right now, the latest computer models show a quick mix to freezing rain starting in Roanoke around 10am to noon.

Still, with the roads being so very cold, it would only take a FEW MINUTES of freezing rain to make travel nearly impossible. With glaze, it doesn’t matter if you have a four wheel drive or not - there’s simply NO TRACTION!!!

The good news is that there is a possibility of the system coming in later in the day…maybe during the afternoon. If that were the case, the chances of any wintry weather go way down.

But DO NOT let the fact that we will have very light moisture fool you. In some cases, that’s a bad thing. Just a tiny amount of freezing rain often times causes much more accidents than snow!

Again, things could warm up just enough before the moisture gets here. Right now, it’s too close to call, and the moisture looks to arrive before noon.

Stay tuned to the forecast Tuesday - one or two hours in timing may make a huge difference between just rain and a DANGEROUS ICY MESS on roads!!!

Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of the area Tuesday…below is the text from the National Weather Service.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

338 PM EST MON JAN 21 2008

...LIGHT WINTRY MIXTURE EXPECTED TUESDAY...

.AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE COAST...MOISTURE WILL

ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION

TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY

AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST

TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST

TUESDAY.

A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED

TUESDAY MORNING...THEN CHANGEOVER TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND

RESULT IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS

THAN AN INCH AND FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN

INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

STAUNTON* SUNNY 18 -11 27 NW7 30.27R

HOT SPRINGS VA SUNNY 1 -9 60 W20G31 30.04R WCI -20 LYNCHBURG SUNNY 20 -8 28 W13G20 30.31R WCI 7

DANVILLE SUNNY 24 4 42 NW13 30.35R WCI 12

MARTINSVILLE SUNNY 23 -6 28 NW8G23 30.37R

ROANOKE SUNNY 17 -7 34 W15 30.33R WCI 2

BLACKSBURG SUNNY 10 -8 44 NW15G24 30.27R WCI -6

DUBLIN* N/A 14 -2 48 W12G17 30.29R WCI 0

MARION* SUNNY 10 -6 48 W20G30 30.32R WCI -8

WISE* SUNNY 9 0 66 NW6 30.30R

ABINGDON* SUNNY 12 0 57 NW6 30.37R

A weather spotter in Danville e-mailed me to say he just had a dusting, despite the snow.

Well, the dusting will not be melting anytime soon!

As of this writing, a MAJOR ARCTIC COLD FRONT is moving in over the mountains and will bring some BITTERLY COLD TEMPS and WIND for Sunday!

Wind Chill Advisories are up for most of the Roanoke Valley and points west….expect WIND WHILLS SUNDAY between 5 ABOVE and 15 BELOW to even 25 BELOW ZERO near West Virginia Sunday!!!

Sunday church-goers will want to be prepared for the shock first thing in the morning!

Wear layers of clothes, warm up the car, bundle up, and be aware that hypothermia and frostbite can occur within minutes in air this cold!

Temperatures Sunday will only be in the teens to around 20 in the New River Valley and SW Mountains, and in the 20’s to maybe near 30 Roanoke to Southside Sunday afternoon - that’s as warm as it gets, folks!

SUNDAY NIGHT, we’ll be the COLDEST!!!!

Lows will average around 10. That’s right: 10. The mountains will see temps drop between ZERO and 10. West Virginia and the Highlands will go BELOW ZERO Sunday Night.

It will warm up some Monday afternoon.

Very dry air has been evaporating what little moisture we have over us this afternoon in the Roanoke Valley and surrounding areas to the west.

It looks cloudy and snowy, but there’s just not enough there for anything more than flurries for most of us at this time.

However, there is a distinct line where the snow has set up today.

It’s snowing in Henry County and Martinsville, Patrick County, Danville and Pittsylvania County, and eastern Franklin County - east of Rocky Mount on Highway 40. This is pretty much where the projected significant (by compared to flurries and clouds, anyway) snow was to be today.

Areas South of Highway 40 and East of Highway 29 have the best chances of picking up that 1 to 2 inches into the evening before ending tonight.

It’s also snowing in Richmond, and even the Virginia Beach area!!! Much of North Carolina from Asheville to even Fayetteville is reporting snow!!!

For the rest of us, just a flurry or snow shower - that’s about it!

Prepare for COLD WEATHER from this point on. REALLY COLD WEATHER. Wind Chill Advisories are up for the Roanoke area Sunday.

Below, the actual text from our friends at the National Weather Service…

------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

235 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2008

...LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH VERY COLD WIND

CHILLS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO

PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHSIDE

VIRGINIA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.

ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY COLD WIND

CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-

PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-

ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...

TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...

RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...GALAX...FLOYD...

NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...SALEM...FINCASTLE...

LEXINGTON...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...UNION...LEWISBURG

235 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2008

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

12 PM EST SUNDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

12 PM EST SUNDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE

SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS MINUS

10 LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS

WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN

FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND

GLOVES.

BUT - IF YOU WANT SNOW - “IT AIN’T OVER ‘TILL THE FAT LADY SINGS!!!“ I feel late this afternoon and evening, the jet stream will help “pull” some moisture back away from the storm, essentially tugging some snow up the Roanoke Valley - enough for a good coating to ½ inch (maybe an isolated 1 inch amount + in a few select areas, depending on any banding!!!) by tonight.

The track of today’s storm will take most of the moisture just to our south, so states like Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and EASTERN Virginia look to get several inches of wet snow by tonight.

Already reports out of Mississippi indicate about 1 to 3 inches has fallen there!

At one point, it looked like the Hampton Roads area could see a good 3 to 8 inches of snow. BUT THAT HAS CHANGED!

New computer model information just in shows most of the heaviest moisture still tending to head more south and east, so I have UPDATED SNOWFALL FORECASTS throughout the state.

Don’t get me wrong, this will still be a HUGE EVENT for our neighbors to the east and deep south who normally don’t get snow!!!

COLD, ARCTIC air is on the way tonight into Sunday. We’re talking highs MAYBE up to 25 Sunday, with lows around 10 - except ZERO to 10 in the mountains Sunday Night.

So whatever falls here - EVEN IF IT’S JUST A LITTLE, ITTY BITTY BIT - will stick around Sunday!!!

Then there’s a chance of freezing rain early Tuesday, and another chance of a wintry mix Thursday!

Will keep you updated!

It looks as if most of the snow and sleet is now pushing east and north, as you can clearly see a back edge to the moisture moving through Roanoke right now.

So, other than some lingering light sleet or snow flakes, most of the action is now over with.

Still, areas of freezing drizzle may be common in places this afternoon and evening, so be careful! Many major roads are passable, but LOTS of side roads remain COVERED! If you MUST travel, be extra careful if you have to venture off the main highways. Lots of accidents reported today.

I’m not too worried about “re-freezing” tonight, as temperatures will actually hold steady and then climb slightly above freezing in Roanoke to around 33 or 34. But there could still be some slick spots, so be cautious just incase.

The bigger story will be the EXTREME COLD that follows - Not Friday, but Saturday and Sunday. Highs this weekend will only be in the 20s and 30s at best. Lows will be around 10. No joke! Black ice from melting and freezing again at night will be a major issue this weekend!

Below is a list of snow/ice reports received from the National Weather Service thus far…

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

1233 PM EST THU JAN 17 2008

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 2

HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.

APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE

OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS

SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BLACKSBURG

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

NORTH CAROLINA

...ASHE COUNTY...

LANSING 4.5 1138 AM 1/17 3 NW LANSING

...SURRY COUNTY...

STATE ROAD 3.0 1125 AM 1/17 NCDOT

DOBSON 2.0 1121 AM 1/17 NCDOT

...WATAUGA COUNTY...

BOONE 5.0 1040 AM 1/17 SKYWARN SPOTTER

VIRGINIA

...ALLEGHANY COUNTY...

CLIFTON FORGE 4.3 1145 AM 1/17

LOW MOOR 3.0 1202 PM 1/17 WXCF/ WIQO/WKEY RADIO

...APPOMATTOX COUNTY...

STONEWALL 2.5 1048 AM 1/17 PUBLIC REPORT

...BATH COUNTY...

HOT SPRINGS 7.3 1118 AM 1/17

...BOTETOURT COUNTY...

CLOVERDALE 5.0 1153 AM 1/17 PUBLIC REPORT

BUCHANAN 4.0 1200 PM 1/17 VIA WDBJ

...BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

MOUNT RUSH 2.5 1053 AM 1/17 SKYWARN SPOTTER

GOLD HILL 1.0 1122 PM 1/17 AMATEUR RADIO

...CAMPBELL COUNTY...

CONCORD 2.5 1142 AM 1/17

CONCORD 2.0 1047 AM 1/17 EAST IN APPOMATTOX CO

...CARROLL COUNTY...

DUGSPUR 2.5 1039 AM 1/17 AMATEUR RADIO

...CITY OF BUENA VISTA...

BUENA VISTA 4.5 1114 AM 1/17

...CITY OF COVINGTON...

COVINGTON 5.0 1204 PM 1/17 WXCF/ WIQO/WKEY RADIO

...CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

LYNCHBURG 2.8 1115 AM 1/17 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...CITY OF SALEM...

SALEM 5.0 1035 AM 1/17 WDBJ

...FLOYD COUNTY...

TERRYS FORK 3.5 1045 AM 1/17

...GILES COUNTY...

PEARISBURG 5.3 1128 AM 1/17 AMATEUR RADIO

NARROWS 5.0 1130 AM 1/17

...GRAYSON COUNTY...

BRIDLE CREEK 5.0 1203 PM 1/17

ELK CREEK 4.8 1140 AM 1/17

HILLTOWN 4.0 1139 AM 1/17 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

SHAWSVILLE 6.0 1145 AM 1/17

CHRISTIANSBURG 5.0 1048 AM 1/17

PRICES FORK 5.0 1222 PM 1/17 NWS EMPLOYEE

SHAWSVILLE 5.0 1052 AM 1/17 WDBJ

CHRISTIANSBURG 4.5 1215 PM 1/17 3 S CHRISTIANSBURG

CHRISTIANSBURG 4.0 1100 AM 1/17 DOWNTOWN

...PATRICK COUNTY...

WOOLWINE 2.0 1109 AM 1/17 POST OFFICE

...PULASKI COUNTY...

DUBLIN 4.5 1100 AM 1/17 AMATEUR RADIO

...ROANOKE COUNTY...

GLENVAR 6.0 1159 AM 1/17 PUBLIC REPORT

GLENVAR 5.0 1110 AM 1/17

...SMYTH COUNTY...

MARION 3.3 1058 AM 1/17 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...TAZEWELL COUNTY...

TANNERSVILLE 3.0 1057 AM 1/17 PUBLIC REPORT

...WYTHE COUNTY...

WYTHEVILLE 5.5 1040 AM 1/17 AMATEUR RADIO

WEST VIRGINIA

...GREENBRIER COUNTY...

WILLIAMSBURG 8.0 1214 PM 1/17 PUBLIC REPORT

FRIARS HILL 6.0 1214 PM 1/17 PUBLIC REPORT

FRIARS HILL 5.0 1045 AM 1/17

LEWISBURG 5.0 1224 PM 1/17 LOST WORLD CAVERNS

RENICKS VALLEY 4.5 1203 PM 1/17 PUBLIC REPORT

...MERCER COUNTY...

BLUEFIELD 3.8 1148 AM 1/17 WVVA-TV

...SUMMERS COUNTY...

HINTON 5.0 1150 PM 1/17

$$

Already I have measured 4” in the Hollins area of Roanoke County….

Looks like a good 3 to 6 inches total now…we keep seeing the heavy wet snow add to the totals and we’ve yet to see the change to any sleet or ice, though reports from radar and the ground over the state line in North Carolina show sleet moving north.

Still, that may take several hours before it happens here.

This has turned out to be quite the snow storm for us! Enjoy but BE CAREFUL out there!!!

Snow has come in fast and furious across the entire area today.

Already, parts of the New River Valley and SW Mountains have between 1 and 3 inches on the ground.

The Roanoke Valley already has a coating!

The latest computer model guidance shows any changeover to ice occurring later in the day, so snow totals will likely be realized by noon for most of us!

I expect this snow to continue, heavy at times for the next several hours, lasting into early afternoon for some.

Still, some sleet and freezing rain may mix in, mainly along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, but not after several inches of snow are likely to fall in the meantime.

A good 1 to 4 inches will cover most areas, with 4 to 6 inches in the SW Mountains and sections of the New River Valley!

Botetourt, Bedford, Lynchburg, Campbell, Appomattox, Craig, Bath, Alleghany, Highland, Amherst Counties - YOUR NEXT!!!

Expect snow to start before 6am or so in these areas - starting from south to north.

It WILL still turn and mix with sleet and ice later today, but since this snow is starting so early and it’s starting out so cold outside - ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK FAST!

The snow has changed to freezing rain and sleet in South Carolina and Central North Carolina as of 5am.

Your reports have been coming in throughout the night and used with radar data, you can see the advance of snow coming in from the south.

Greensboro had the snow start around 4am this morning, and it was snowing in the New River Valley and Christiansburg by 4:15.

Pulaski, Floyd, Franklin, Henry, Montgomery, Carroll, Wythe, Grayson, Giles, Tazewell, and Bland Counties have also had the snow already start within the hour - coming down pretty good in places.

The snow is making a steady shot northward and should arrive in the Roanoke area about anytime (by 5-6am Roanoke and points north).

More Updates to Come!

Right now, everything you would want for a snow storm in our area is in place.

First, LOTS of Gulf of Mexico moisture to our south.

Second, a huge supply of COLD air to the north.

The problem?

The COLD AIR will be MOVING, instead of staying put over the northeast U.S.

This means that the southern branch of the jet stream supplying the moisture is still on tap.

In an ideal situation, the cold air is locked into a “blocking” pattern, where it stays put and allows for the moisture coming in to interact with the cold and give us snow.

This go around, the cold air, with nothing to “hold it” in place, will QUICKLY slide east Thursday.

This means that we WILL see some snow Thursday, but only in the morning.

By late morning, I expect enough warming to occur aloft to turn the snow over to sleet, freezing rain, and plain ol’ rain for some.

The timing of the change-over will be critical as to how much accumulation (if any) occurs.

Right now, a good coating to perhaps an inch or two look the most likely for Thursday!

Below is the actual text from the National Weather Service issued this morning….

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

354 AM EST WED JAN 16 2008

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS

MORNING WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ENOUGH COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX

OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY

ACCUMULATING BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES BEFORE MIXING WITH AND

CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY PUT A THIN GLAZING OF ICE ON

SHADED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS...AND ON BRIDGES AS WELL AS ELEVATED

SURFACES. EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

COLD temperatures continue to roll in over the mountains in combination with a strong upper level disturbance. In essence, this tight area of “spin” lifts the air rapidly right out ahead of it. When I forecast snow showers, I look for upper level spins of this magnitude. The spin is strong enough that the snow band is making it OVER THE MOUNTAINS into Franklin County and even southern Bedford County!

Areas like Blacksburg, Christiansburg, Elliston, Bradshaw, Bent Mountain, Cave Spring, Clearbrook, Boones Mill, Mount Pleasant, Northern Smith Mountain Lake, and Moneta could see a quick coating of snow this morning! Accidents are possible, the roads are very cold! The snow could even reach Lynchburg by 8 or 9 am.

Other snow flurries and snow showers will take place for time to time today, but will be more scattered.

By the way, Thursday’s SNOW still looks on tap for the morning…turning to rain. We’ll see exactly when that happens, though!

In the meantime, I’m heading into the heaviest snow band right now to record a video update!

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

739 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2008

VAZ011-014-018-019-WVZ042>045-151400-

GILES-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-

GREENBRIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...

NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...UNION...

LEWISBURG

739 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2008

.NOW...

BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA

THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A QUICK

HALF INCH OF SNOW. BETWEEN 7:30 AND 9:00 AM...A NEARLY STATIONARY

BAND OF SNOW WILL EXIST BETWEEN BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA AND

BLACKSBURG VIRGINIA. A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING

THIS TIME...EFFECTING THE PRINCETON...PEMBROKE...AND BLACKSBURG

AREAS. ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW...WITH SIMILAR INTENSITY...STRETCHED

FROM ALDERSON WEST VIRGINIA...INTO SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN

THE HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINA. A QUICK HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS

ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS CORRIDOR.

We have already set the stage for winter weather, should it arrive soon, with a surge of bitterly cold arctic air over moving in over us right now. Snow showers and flurries may accompany the cold today and Tuesday along with gusty winds. If we can “hang on” to this cold weather, we have actually have some real snow falling outside - as early as Thursday!

Instead of coming from the south and riding by to our west, pulling in warmer air and giving us sleet and freezing rain and a wintry mix, a new low forming by this Wednesday in the Gulf may have it’s eyes on the East Coast. That’s a perfect direction for heavy wet snow for Southwest Virginia.

But before we get too excited, I must point out a couple things.

First, I have watched potential winter storms fizzle with each passing day. Forecasts of snow this year a few days in advance end up hardly anything significant at all by the time the supposed “event” is to take place. So, remembering that trend, we need to realize just how hard it has been so far to get a good snow this season. Despite a computer model showing snow, the human quality of this forecaster realizes that trends often can be repeated during stubborn winters.

Secondly, while the low pressure area WILL be coming at us from the Gulf of Mexico, and passing north to our EAST this time… it won’t be passing too far east. Ideally, you do want the low to the east, so you can keep the cold air in place. Winds on the back side of the low allow for a northeasterly fetch of cold air around the low into our area when it’s too our east. You also want the low on JUST the right track. Too far east, and we end up with nothing, as the moisture gets wasted out to sea. Right over us or just to our east, and the warm air could still wrap around turning the snow to rain.

A perfect “in between”, where the low rides into eastern Virginia will be what would set us up with a good snow. Earlier this week, that looked like a good possibility for Thursday. But the latest information I’m seeing on the computer models as of this writing is indicating a track that would pass to our east, but pass awfully close by - far enough east for snow to start, but as the low tracks into Virginia, upper level winds will try “pulling” the low further west to near Lynchburg by late Thursday.

Such a track would likely ruin a pure snow for many, especially locations east of the Blue Ridge Mountains as warmer air around the low warms the clouds above freezing. Locations from Lexington to Botetourt, Roanoke, Floyd, and Franklin Counties will be right on the line. Literally.

Whatever happens Thursday, we should appreciate that we do need moisture. Models are printing out between a half inch and upwards of a whole inch of liquid moisture. If that’s snow, we’re talking several inches. But if any rain gets involved, we would hardly see anything worth shoveling. It will be a nail-biter for sure. Especially for us forecasters!

After Thursday’s system I do expect another strong blast of VERY COLD Arctic air again Saturday into Sunday. We’ll likely see high winds, snow showers, and temperatures falling into the 20s for HIGHS and lows potentially down around 10 - that’s right - 10 - by the end of the upcoming weekend.

Even though Thursday’s winter storm may not materialize for a good snow, you have to give it credit. The storm tracks are starting to change. The air is getting colder more often. Many times really cold! So at least things are changing up. The cold is sticking around longer, and we’re seeing more moisture now, too. Getting the two to link up the next several days will be the hardest part if you want snow.

But hey, we’re trying! Stay tuned…

Well, our dry air held tough today. And while the dryness helped evaporate the moisture in the air to help keep it cold this morning, it was simply TOO DRY to get any significant moisture in here! In other words: ALL of the moisture evaporated!

The system also pivoted east this morning, throwing most of the widespread moisture to our east, while a narrow band of moisture tried and tried to make it through - only to fall apart as time won the battle and the parent energy moved east.

We’ll try again soon I’m sure!!!

Another quick bout of wintry weather will be occurring for some of us this morning.

A strong, very small, but potent storm system is swinging though today, bringing with it a band of moisture this Wednesday!

Now, temperatures are RIGHT ON THE LINE for snow or rain!!!!

For many of us, it’s just a cold rain…

But for the rest of us, like it has been ALL WINTER, it may get JUST COLD ENOUGH for more wintry weather….

First, as rain falls into dry air on the ground and several thousand feet up, part of it will EVAPORATE. This evaporation causes cooling - for liquid water to become a gas, it takes energy: HEAT. In other words, when water evaporates, it leaves behind cooler air as it takes away the heat! We call this EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

If you have sleet outside this morning, this is likely why!

The other factor in today’s forecast is lift.

With such a tight spin moving over our heads today, the air will rise and rise very quickly right underneath the “heart” of the spin.

Rising air expands, and cools! A lot of times, what would normally be just a cold rain can turn into a heavy, wet snow, based on this lift! This is called DYNAMIC COOLING.

Both of these “COOLING” factors will make for a tricky forecast today. Depending on how powerful each factor is and where they combine will determine who sees another wintry mix or another cold rain.

It’s been a very tough call on what to forecast today.

I first noticed today’s weather maker about a week ago. It looked like rain or a wintry mix might occur on Christmas Day. As more and more information started to come in with each computer model run, the scenario went back and forth. I sent out bulletins and made special graphics explaining the possibilities of more wintry mix around Christmas.

Models wanted to develop a system near the East Coast, wrapping moisture and cold air around it and bringing us snow with some rain.

Then most models started to show a warmer track, to our west, bringing up air above freezing in the cloud, and causing a rain event.

By the end of last week, most models didn’t even start to make any sense. Last Friday, I couldn’t figure it out! The models showed a tight, intense spin in the upper levels, but no moisture at the surface! I was already suspicious, now I knew something was up!

It was clear, that if anything happened, it would be AFTER Christmas, maybe into early Wednesday (today!).

Through it all, I kept the mention of a possible wintry mix in the forecast last week, over the weekend, and through the Holiday.

Very early this morning, it’s clear to me that: YES, there IS a system out there and it’s right on our doorstep! Will watch today to see how the temperature profile affects what kind of moisture we end up getting.

Just remember, those of you who do get any wintry stuff, you heard it here first!!!

It’s happened again today! Another round of wet snow, sleet, and rain for most of us early this Friday morning. There are some minor accumulations, mainly on cars and grassy areas, but watch those bridges this morning.

Just like Wednesday, everything should clear by around noon, leaving us with just clouds and highs in the 40s today.

Below is the actual text from the National Weather Service about this morning’s WINTER MIX!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLAND...PEARISBURG...PULASKI...

RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...

SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...AMHERST...

LYNCHBURG...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...UNION...LEWISBURG

431 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2007

...WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...

RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL CON